According to a recent survey, blogging is "slowly becoming more of a mainstream phenomenon" on the Internet. The survey indicated that "thanks to much media hype and some high profile blog sites, these online journals have captured the public’s imagination."

Are blogs ready for prime-time? What is the future of blogging? Will it become a mainstream medium and, if so, when?

I posed those questions to a group of Internet mavens including some well-known Internet marketing consultants, and several of the authors of the much-heralded book, The ClueTrain Manifesto.

In two posts - this one today and one tomorrow - I will let them tell you in their own words what they believe the future holds for blogging. What they have to say is a "graduate education" for anyone seeking to better understand Internet space and blogging's place in it. In a third post, I hope to summarize what I believe to be some common themes, as well as what I see are some conflicting opinions.

This post will present the opinions and comments of the following marketers: Seth Godin, Rick Bruner, John Jantsch, and Debbie Weil. Tomorrow, you'll hear from the Cluetrain guys: Doc Searls, Christopher Locke, and David Weinberger.

Since the idea for this post came from something Seth Godin said on his blog, I'll start with him.

SETH GODIN

I think the key is a handsome, easy RSS type reader.

It might happen when it's built into the next version of Safari for the Mac.

I do believe it will tip, and pretty soon, too.

RICK BRUNER

It's a question that merits more than a quick answer, which means it is easier to ignore the question than answer it. But here goes. . .

[I]n sheer numbers a minority of people read blogs. I'm actually in the midst of conducting some research that should give conclusive and statistically valid answers along those lines.

As for when blogging might "tip" and go "mainstream," I think it would be a few years still, if ever, that the majority of U.S. Internet users were regularly reading blogs, much less the majority of Americans altogether. Or at least, by the time that many people are doing so, we're unlikely to be still calling them "blogs." I think the form may be more and more widespread on traditional media sites, so many people may be reading what are in some sense weblogs (reverse chronology, links and short commentary, frequent updates, personal voice) without knowing that is what they're are

called.

That said, I just conducted a piece of research for a client (on a non-blog topic) where we asked respondents who represented Internet users "which of the following types of media do you use regularly for information and entertainment," and only 39% said "news websites" and 19% said "fun websites," so it's unlikely that 50% of Net users are going to be blog readers probably ever.

We live in a world where most people get their news from USA Today, CNN, late night talk shows or no place. Blogs are not a mass vehicle in a climate like that.

That said, who is reading blogs? I don't have research yet to back it up, but it's obviously information junkies and influencers. I'd bet that more than half of serious journalists read blogs by now, and various Washington insiders, including Paul Wolfowitz cite blogs as a resource.

The real question isn't how many people read blogs but the influence that blogs will have because of who it is who reads them. You ask "What signs" indicate a move in the direction of their increasing importance? I'm sure I'm not the first of your correspondents to mention the Democratic Convention. That was pretty huge for the profile of blogs.

You refer to the "tipping point." In his book by that title, Malcom Gladwell describes three types of personalities that are most influential in promoting trends: "connectors," who are unusually well connected and enjoy putting people in touch with each other, "mavens," who have passionate depth of knowledge in particular fields and like educating others on those subjects, and "salesmen," who are especially persuasive advocates for a product or cause. Most bloggers embody all of those

characteristics, particularly those of mavens.

In short, it may be never before the majority of Americans is regularly reading blogs, but I'm sure that blogs will have an impact on the information and policies that affect the majority of Americans soon, if not already.

JOHN JANTSCH

All blogs will morph to replace web sites. No, that's not exactly true. All web sites will become blogs. See, the real fascination with blogs in my opinion is that they offer the experience, the community, the interaction, that people thought they would get from the Internet. But static web sites and the Internet turned out to be a bit chilly. Then when the blog format came around it changed that feeling for many people.

Before enough people really even know what the term blog is (yes there are very many of these even in the high tech world) the term won't mean anything because it will become simply another way to access and publish information. In fact, I have referred to my blog as an information management system. I would categorize blogs as an evolutionary step only and not the end of the road.

DEBBIE WEIL

Blogging isn't mainstream yet. But I predict that in the not too distant future the most successful Web sites will be built around a blog. In other words, the index or home page of an effective Web site will be a blog, with constantly updated, fresh content.